1---
2date: 2025-02-14
3location: New York City, USA
4author: Anton
5---
6
7# Fake analysis
8
9Ok. Imagine you are in the taxi or uber somewhere in the US. Your driver has his radio on. What is he listening to?
10
11It’s some sport analysis show - basketball or baseball or football.
12
13Hosts of the show debate the game from yesterday. Everyone makes some smart sounding points. They tell the stories that should explain in one go why their team did good/bad yesterday.
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15It’s all very elaborate. It sounds even profound. It sounds like a host found some unique insight and you are the first one to hear it. And later in the evening you will go and retell this to your friends.
16
17Now step back. Go to twitter or open some podcast. What would you see? You will see similar pattern in similar analysis: “Let me tell you the real story on why russia started the war in Ukraine/who historically owns the land of Palestine etc”.
18
19It’s always tracked to one event in the past and then the story is retold based on that single event.
20
21Why did Lakers play good yesterday? Well it all starts in 2005 when Kobe introduced this novel training exercise.
22
23Why did Chiefs lose Super Bowl? Well, it is because in 2018 they hired logistic manager that has peculiar way of booking hotels and he made a terrible mistake of booking hotel which has late check in.
24
25Why did russia invade Ukraine? Well in in X century there was this event …
26
27Why did Trump win election in 2024? It all goes back to the year 2020. Let me tell you this story that will blow your mind…
28
29If you’ve never been to the US and you hear this sport analysis initially - it sounds impressive. Because it’s elaborate and uses nice words and nice structure and it feels smart.
30
31After some time you realize that people are talking out of their asses. They learned this format that is pure entertainment and very little content.
32
33It’s very unproductive. Because you can try to say that the point is wrong, but now you will be dragged in trying to show that the point is irrelevant. That things are more complicated and nuanced. That every event has multiple inputs and tons of people involved and that all those things played the role.
34
35We were promised scientific methods, tools to search the truth and knowledge and wisdom. But all we got is some performative pseudo-intellectual jerking that does no good. It makes people feel smarter without making them smarter.
36
37**Reflections:**
38
39- things that make you feel good are not always good. thing that make you feel smart are not always smart
40- oversimplification is usually a red flag(unless it’s Occam's razor)
41- how elaborate person is doesn’t imply she is smart, wise or even kind